Bitcoin, BTC/USD, Ethereum, ETH/USD - Outlook:
- Bitcoin is attempting a breakout from a bullish flag pattern.
- A potential reverse head & shoulders brewing in ETH/USD.
- What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch?
Cryptocurrencies jumped after a US judge ruled on Thursday that Ripple Labs Inc did not violate federal securities law by selling its XRP token on public exchanges. Technical charts suggest Bitcoin and Ethereum could be preparing for another leg higher.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView
BTC/USD has rebounded from near major cushion on the 200-day moving average, coinciding with the lower edge of a rising channel from early 2023. This coupled with the subsequent rise above minor resistance at the May high of 28460 has confirmed that the downward pressure has faded, raising the odds of further gains.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView; Refer to notes at the bottom
As the colour-coded daily candlestick charts show, the April-May retreat was consolidation within the broader bullish phase.
Most recently, BTC/USD has consolidated in a flag pattern. Any break above the recent range could open the way toward the upper edge of the channel (now at about 34800). Importantly, such a break would be associated with a rise above a vital hurdle on the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart for the first time since 2022 – an important bullish signal.
On the downside, BTC/USD needs to stay above the 200-day moving average (now at about 25600) for the upward pressure to remain intact.
BTC/USD Weekly Chart
Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView
ETHEREUM: A potential reverse head & shoulders brewing
On technical charts, ETH/USD last month rebounded from strong converged support on the 200-day moving average, coinciding with an upper edge of a rising trendline from the end of 2022. The hold above the major average is an important sign, keeping intact the medium-term upward bias. See the previous update highlighting the significance “Bitcoin & Ethereum Slide as Fed Signals Higher Rates: BTC/USD & ETH/USD Price Setups”, published June 15.
ETH/USD Daily Chart
Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView; Refer to notes at the bottom
From a trend perspective, the broader bias for ETH/USD remains bullish, as the colour-coded daily candlestick charts show.
ETH/USD Daily Chart
Chart Created by Manish Jaradi Using TradingView
It is now attempting to break above a key barrier around 1975-2000. Such a break would trigger a minor reverse head & shoulders pattern (the left shoulder is at the May low, the head at the June low, and the right shoulder is at the early-July low), potentially opening the way toward 2250, the price objective of the pattern.
Note: The above colour-coded chart(s) is(are) based on trending/momentum indicators to minimize subjective biases in trend identification. It is an attempt to segregate bullish Vs bearish phases, and consolidation within a trend Vs reversal of a trend. Blue candles represent a Bullish phase. Red candles represent a Bearish phase. Grey candles serve as Consolidation phases (within a Bullish or a Bearish phase), but sometimes they tend to form at the end of a trend. Candle colors are not predictive – they merely state what the current trend is. Indeed, the candle color can change in the next bar. False patterns can occur around the 200-period moving average, or around a support/resistance, and/or in a sideways/choppy market. The author does not guarantee the accuracy of the information. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Users of the information do so at their own risk.
--- Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for DailyFX.com
--- Contact and follow Jaradi on Twitter: @JaradiManish
